This is a very cynical thing to say, but honestly, I think at MHP headquarters there is some relief after the decision by Kurdish separatist movement PKK to end its unilateral cease-fire. The more PKK violence, the stronger Turkish nationalist feelings and the more votes the MHP will get. Will they, thanks to the PKK, be able to pass the 10 percent threshold again in the upcoming elections in June?
Last year the PKK extended its cease-fire until the elections. But now, three months before the election date, they have changed their mind. The cease-fire is off. Even though they say they will not attack and will only defend themselves more resolutely, there will definitely be an increase in violence. The Turkish army never respected any cease-fire, so action will again cause harsh reaction.
The MHP is just above 10% in the election forecast, but many voters have not yet made up their minds. The interesting thing is, the bigger the MHP gets, the harder it becomes to solve the Kurdish issue. If they stay under the threshold, their votes will be lost and the seats in parliament will be divided between the parties that did make it above the threshold, which will be the AKP and the CHP. It would increase the chances of the AKP being able to govern alone, which is the biggest hope the Kurds have of seeing any progress in their situation. Nothing at all on that front can be expected from the CHP, even less from a coalition government of CHP and MHP.
Don’t misunderstand me, I’m pro-representation, so against this ridiculous 10 percent threshold, and I support as much representation of citizens in parliament as possible. So even though I don’t support the nationalist approach of the MHP, I still want them to be in parliament. But what’s the strategy of the PKK here? Solely to raise the pressure? Do they count on the AKP winning a huge victory anyway, and is this only meant to put early pressure on the AKP in anticipation of their winning the election? So that maybe, possibly the AKP will finally deliver on its promises to create a more democratic country?